Probability & Statistics

Wright–Fisher Neutral Genetic Drift

Keep the expected allele frequency fixed while random reproduction erases genetic diversity.

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Wright–Fisher Neutral Genetic Drift

This module illustrates how haploid populations change allele frequencies over discrete generations purely through random reproduction.

Worked Example

Given 4 gene copies with 2 initially holding the tracked allele, after 5 generations the expected heterozygosity is approximately 0.11865.

  1. Initial gene copies M = 4, tracked initial copies i0 = 2.
  2. Generations t = 5.
  3. Expected frequency remains p0 = 2/4 = 0.5.
  4. Expected heterozygosity declines as 2p0(1 - p0)(1 - 1/M)t = 2(0.5)(0.5)(1 - 0.25)5 ≈ 0.11865234375.

Experiment

  1. Adjust the Initial copies to see different starting states.
  2. Change Generations to observe long-term behavior.
  3. Observe that fixing the initial frequency causes variance to spread towards 0 and 1, eventually absorbing at the boundaries.

Explore this concept in the interactive module: Wright–Fisher Neutral Genetic Drift.

Limitations

This module assumes no mutation, migration, or selection pressures, tracking purely neutral drift in a finite haploid population.

References

For more details on the derivations and underlying evolutionary theory regarding genetic drift and allele fixation, consult the Cambridge biological lecture notes:

https://people.bss.phy.cam.ac.uk/courses/biolectures/Lecture_Evo_2024.pdf

Experience it interactively

Adjust parameters, observe in real time, and build deep intuition with Riano’s interactive Wright–Fisher Neutral Genetic Drift module.

Try Wright–Fisher Neutral Genetic Drift on Riano →

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